MARITIME CONFLICTS IN THE ASIA PACIFIC REGION.   Term Paper ID:30088 Click to get this paper

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Paper Abstract: Discusses major maritime issues and potential armed conflicts among ASEAN nations. Arms race and growth of Chinese naval power. Chinese economy. The Spateley Islands issue of the South China Sea; their strategic importance to maritime trade. Conflict over the status of Taiwan. Korean Penisula conflict. Outlook for peace and stability of the Asia Pacific region. Paper Introduction: CURRENT MARITIME ISSUES/CONFLICT IN ASIA PACIFIC REGION This research paper outlines and discusses the major maritime issues and potential armed conflicts in the Asia Pacific region, their implications and the outlook for regional peace and security, with particular relevance to ASEAN nations. The ASEAN nations now include Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam. 1. Arms Race and Growth in Chinese Naval Power The Asia Pacific region is one of the most heavily armed regions of the world. The United States is the world's leading military superpower. China (the PRC) has had nuclear weapons since the 1960s and the largest army in the world. Japan could easily become a nuclear power and its Self-Defense forces, particularly its air force and navy, are formidable. The military Text of the Paper: The entire text of the paper is shown below. However, the text is somewhat scrambled. We want to give you as much information as we possibly can about our papers and essays, but we cannot give them away for free. In the text below you will find that while disordered, many of the phrases are essentially intact. From this text you will be able to get a solid sense of the writing style, the concepts addressed, and the sources used in the research paper. A great deal willdepend on two factors: (1) the maintenance of a common front between thetwo maritime powers which could prevent the realization of Chinese aims,Japan and the United States; and (2) internal political developments withinChina. In the 199 s, ithas permitted Taiwan to purchase F-16 fighters and other means of airdefense and has engaged in joint planning with Japan of a theater anti-ballistic defense system which suggests that Washington and Tokyo believethat Taiwan alone is or soon will be unable to survive a determined Chineseassault. China thus farhas not dealt with ASEAN bodies as a whole on Spratley Islands issues,preferring to negotiate separately with each nation. W., Jr. In the199 s, the Taiwanese have resisted negotiations leading toward Taiwan'sincorporation into mainland China. B. 55-69. Tucker, N. China's nuclear modernizationprogram. 3. Until the 199 s, the Chinese had a third class airforce, consistinglargely of obsolete 195 s and 196 s designed Soviet bombers, transports andolder MIG class fighter planes. 262). 27-37. 2. Asia's empty tank. Freeman, C. References A rig too near. These waters might contain trillions ofdollars in underseas deposits of crude petroleum and natural gas; however,the Economist said that "some foreign oil companies are beginning tosuspect that the South China Sea's riches may be more fabled than real" (ARig, 1997, March 29, p. Calder, K. National Geographic,pp. Economist, p. 418). Theliberation of Taiwan is a touchstone of Chinese nationalism, which in timesof crisis Tucker reports(1998, September), could become "an effective toolfor rallying support" (p. In 1997, the Chinese built an oil rig and begandrilling in waters only 64 miles off the Vietnamese coast but subsequentlywithdrew. Theleast predictable power is North Korea. Strategic Review, pp. Foreign Affairs, 77, 6-11. 1). 258). 2-33. The basiclimiting factors are the lack of air to air refueling capability andforward airbases, which could be remedied fairly soon. They have improved their capacity to conduct joint serviceamphibious operations. In Korean peninsula: Views on Yellow Sea 'gun battle,'sunshine policy, Perry visit, United States Information Agency, pp. 7 and xviii). Various incidents have occurred among these claimants. 4-5. Conflict on the Korean peninsula. South China Sea -The Spratley Islands Issue Conflict Over the Status of Taiwan. China is likely to play an increasingly assertive role in the SouthChina Sea, but an overtly aggressive naval expansion in the region a la therole played by the Japanese Navy in 1941 is unlikely in the near term, ifonly for logistic reasons. (1996, March/April). Chinese Ambitions in the South China Sea. The United States is the world's leading military superpower.China (the PRC) has had nuclear weapons since the 196 s and the largestarmy in the world. Korean peninsula:Views on Yellow Sea 'gun battle,' sunshine policy, Perry visit. In 1974, Chinaejected Vietnam from the Paracel Isands where it has established an air andnaval base. On the other hand, the acquisition ofTaiwan is among China's top foreign policy priorities. The coming conflict withChina. Since 1994,the Indonesian government has protested Chinese claims to areas containingnatural gas within Indonesia's EEZ. As theworld's third largest nuclear power, the PRC had in 1995 about 225-3 nuclear weapons, including about 45 nuclear warheads deliverable by land-based missiles, bombers and a few dozen intercontinental ballistic missileswhich were described by Caldwell and Lennon (1995, Fall) as a "credible,minimum deterrent nuclear force" (p. However, Dobson and Fravel said in 1997: "most of China's aircraftcannot even reach the South China Sea" (1997, September, 261). E. Under the 1982United Nations Law of the Sea Convention (LOSC), to which China (in 1996)and most of the ASEAN nations have acceded, archipelago nations, such asIndonesia and the Philippines, may declare exclusive economic zones (EEZs)of ocean regions within 2 nautical miles of their borders. In the early 199 s, it appeared tobe well on the way to developing weapons grade plutonium capability. 53. Preventing war in the TaiwanStrait. The Taiwan conflict contains the seeds of serious conflict among thegreat powers in the region. Dobson and Fravel said in 1997 that "China canmaintain a naval presence in the South China Sea, but it cannot conductsustained combat operations" there (p. In 1988, the Chinese occupied six islands off the Vietnamesecoast after a gun battle between Chinese and Vietnamese patrol boats inwhich two Vietnamese craft were sunk and 22 Vietnamese were killed. In earlyJune 1999, a North Korean patrol boat and nine fishing vessels intrudedinto South Korean waters. In the meantime, they should not besurprised if the Chinese continue to fortify islets under their control orseize others as they gradually improve their forward naval and aircapabilities. Under the Taiwan RelationsAct, the United States is committed to make available to Taiwan suchequipment and services as Taiwan needs for self defense. The Chinese haveemphasized the acquisition of medium-range missiles which they demonstratedduring the 1996 crisis in the Taiwan Straits and are believed to have addedto since. Their anti-aircraft defenses have been strengthened through the introduction ofelectronic countermeasures and $25 million of AWACs type early warningradar systems purchased from the Israelis (Crock, 1999, December 2 , 1999,p. Shin, G. Since the mid-198 s, as China's economy has expanded sohave expenditures on the PLA, the rate of increase which Bernstein andMunro (1997) estimated was about 16 percent between 1986 and 1994 and 12.7percent in 1996-1997 (pp. Since then, the Chinese have purchased 72Russian modern SU-27s, and other modern supersonic aircraft. Conclusion Peace and stability in the Asia Pacific region is threatened by anenormous buildup of armed forces on the continent and also, more recently,by the development of the enhanced conventional and possibly nuclearmissile capability of the unpredictable North Koreans and the emergence ofChina in the not too distant future as a major naval and air power in theSouth China Sea. (1999, December). Business Week, p. Any attempt by the PRC to conquer Taiwan wouldjeopardize its economic development which for many years will remainimportantly dependent upon its continuing access to Western and Japanesetechnology, investment and markets. Internet:http://www.asiamedia.ucla.edu/ExpertOpinion/Gi-WookShin, htm, 1-3. 36). 7). T. (1995, Fall). 17-18. However, the ASEAN nations would do well to lookto their own naval and air defenses, and learn how to work together,including the planning and conduct of air and sea exercises which shouldinclude non-ASEAN nations such as Australia which have more modern forces.The issue is not so much the availability of financial resources, which asthe Asian financial crisis eases, are not a major constraint but ratherrationalization of the type of uncoordinated defense procurement andstrategy which has largely characterized their efforts to date (Dobson andFravel, 1997, September, p. South Korea has strong conventional forces.Taiwan has been arming in self-defense as have the smaller ASEAN nations. South China Sea. The Chinese as yet have no aircraft carriers. Economist, pp. Clinton's muddled Taiwan policy.Current History, 97, 243-249. As they pursued the modernization of the Chinese economy and itsopening to Western trade and technology, Chinese leaders under DengXiaoping and his successors reduced the size of the Peoples' LiberationArmy (PLA) from five million men in 198 to roughly 2.9 million today(Bracken, 1999, December, p. Dobson, W. 57-58). In 1998 it sentmissiles over Japan signifying that it had or would soon perfect theability to deliver at least intermediate range ballistic missiles. It would be unwise for them tointervene in the Chinese civil war. (1999, June 18). That, too, is only a matter oftime. LOSC contains no binding provision for the adjudication of disputes.The Chinese have issued conflicting statements concerning their intentions.In 1992, the National Peoples' Congress affirmed the PRC's claim to theentire Spratley Islands region, but in 1995 Chinese Foreign Minister QianQichen told an ASEAN meeting that "China has never claimed [that] the SouthChina Sea is the territorial waters of China" (Dobson and Fravel, 1997,September, p. While engaging indiplomatic talks with its neighbors and the United States, North Korea hascontinued to engage in sabre-rattling. In 1995, China constructed a naval outpost at Mischief Reef,within the Filipino EEZ, which the Filipinos later blew up; and in 1996Chinese and Filipino naval craft exchanged gunfire in the area. (1998, December). Current History, 96, 258-263. According to Freeman (1998, July/August) "China's leaders havealways said they would go to war to prevent the permanent division ofChina. DerTagesspiegel. 262). Crock, S.. (1998, September). The PRC has shown increasing signs ofimpatience, as reflected in the 1996 crisis in the Taiwan Straits, when theChinese staged amphibious maneuvers in the vicinity and lobbed missileswithout warheads over Taiwan. Causing offence. 36. 1).Meanwhile, former Secretary of Defense William Perry continued intermittenttalks with North Korea's leaders. A crash effort is, however, underway tobuild a blue water navy, including the purchase in 1994 of four modernRussian attack submarines, the purchase in 1997 of two Russian destroyers,the introduction of the first antisubmarine warfare and electronic warfarecountermeasure equipment aboard surface ships and the purchase from Russiaof shipboard surface to air missiles (Crock, p. North Korea has a heavily armed standing army of over one million andis an incipient nuclear power. Implications/Outlook The peace and stability of the Asia Pacific region could be upset bythe outbreak of open hostilities over any of the above situations. 1 -11.Internet: http://www.fas.org/news/dprk/1999/wwwh9jun18,htm, 1-12. The ASEAN nations now includeBrunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam. In1994, it agreed to halt that program in exchange for American humanitarianaid and assistance in the development of peaceful heavy water reactors and,after further diplomatic pressure from the West, Japan and the PRC, to letinternational inspectors monitor its nuclear program. For varioushistorical, political and economic reasons, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei,Indonesia and the Philippines have laid claims to specific EEZs adjacent totheir shores. In the 198 s the PRC navy consisted of coastal craft and about 5 Soviet 195 s design submarines. Bernstein, R., and R. The Chinese (PRC and Taiwan) have claimed that all of the SpratleyIslands are Chinese territory, citing historic claims dating back to thepre-1425 AD seafaring days of the Tang and Ming Dynasties. 68; and Dobson and Fravel256). 1. 68). 26 ). But in orderto get this support, North Korea must present itself as a possible danger"(p. Korean Peninsula Conflict The communist regime in North Korea is undergoing such economichardships that it is unable even to feed its people. He said "in order to generate the survival ofits people, Pyongyang urgently needs assistance from the West. United States Information Agency. They now believe that they are likely to have to do so" (p. Some observers, such as GermanMaass (1999, June 17), argue that North Korea is playing a desperate formof diplomatic brinksmanship. J., and M. A dangerous period lies ahead as thelargely unpopular communist Chinese leadership seeks to cope with theemergence of non-communist opposition within the country and thecentrifugal effects of economic modernization. (1997, March 29). 256). New York: Knopf, 1997. South Korean PresidentKim Dae-jung's Sunshine Policy of engagement of the two Koreas offers theprospect of eventual peaceful reunification of the Korean peninsula;however, Shin (1999, June 24) argues that "North Korea suspects that theSouth Korean 'sunshine policy' is ultimately only a way of absorbing theNorth into the South's [capitalist] system" (p. The Economist said that China"skillfully used the region's economic turmoil to reinforce its claims inthe South China Sea" (Causing, 1999, February 2 , p. A tense 1 day standoff ensued during the courseof which South Korean patrol boats sunk one North Korean ship and inflictedcasualties (United States Information Agency, 1999, June 18, p. They are strategically important because they sitastride about one third of the world's maritime trade, including Japan'soil supply and $2 billion in annual trade between China and ASEAN nations(Dobson and Fravel, p. In1992, the Chinese granted oil exploration rights to an American company inanother area near Vietnam. CURRENT MARITIME ISSUES/CONFLICT IN ASIA PACIFIC REGION This research paper outlines and discusses the major maritime issuesand potential armed conflicts in the Asia Pacific region, theirimplications and the outlook for regional peace and security, withparticular relevance to ASEAN nations. (1999, June 24). Themilitary presence of the Russians in the region has considerably recededsince 199 , but they are a major source of high technology weaponry for thePRC. Gunboat policy as a cry for help. 28). H. The ASEAN nations are not likely to have much influence over theoutcome of the simmering Taiwan crisis. Japan could easily become a nuclear power and its Self-Defense forces, particularly its air force and navy, are formidable. Dahlby, T. (1998, July/August). That crisis was defused after the UnitedStates dispatched an aircraft carrier there. On the other hand, Taiwan under thecontrol of the PRC would directly threaten the Philippines and turn theflank of the ASEAN position in the South China Sea. Y. 11). Fravel. 8). ForeignAffairs, pp. Arms Race and Growth in Chinese Naval Power The Asia Pacific region is one of the most heavily armed regions ofthe world. 18). Internet:http://www.fas.org/news/dprk/1999/www9jun18, htm, 1-12.----------------------- 1 Lennon. (1999, June 18). China's arms' buildup: Isthe paper tiger growing claws? Maass, H. Bracken, P. As it industrializes, China is becoming alarge oil importer (Calder, 1996, March/April, pp. The most likely area of majorconflict in the South China Sea within the next few years is over Taiwan.Under the 1972 U.S.-PRC Shanghai Communique and subsequently, the UnitedStates has recognized that Taiwan is part of China, but it has insistedthat differences between Taiwan and China be resolved peacefully. The PLA has been largely preoccupiedwith maintaining internal order, but its influence within the government isstill very strong. 247). Munro. It has pledged to resolve disputes over the islandspeacefully, but has refused to discuss its control over the Paracels. Red herringhegemon: China in the South China Sea. Neither the United States, South Korea, the PRC nor Japan, whichwas greatly alarmed by the 1998 missile firing, is likely to permit NorthKorea to start or win a major war, but tensions are likely to remain highfor the foreseeable future. The Spratley or SpratlyIslands consist of 23 virtually uninhabited islands, "a scattered rosaryof coral specks and sand bars," which consist of five square kilometers ofland mass amidst 1.4 million square miles of ocean which stretch 17 mileson a north-south axis from near Hong Kong to the Strait of Malacca (Dahlby,1998, December, p. InOctober 1999, Premier Zhu Rongji promised that China would aid energydevelopment projects in the South China Sea. Most of that increase has beendevoted to the modernization and expansion of naval and air forces. (1999, March 1). Caldwell, J., and A. (1999, February 2 ). According to Dobson and Fravel, in 1997, Vietnam occupied insome fashion 21, China 8, Philippines 8, Malaysia 4 and Taiwan 1 sites inthe Spratleys (1997, September, p. Asia's militaries and the newnuclear age. Current History, 98, 415-421. (1997, September). 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