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UNEMPLOYMENT PROBLEMS.
Term Paper ID:18398
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Essay Subject:
Causes, impact of inflation, govt. policies.... More...
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8 Pages / 1800 Words
6 sources, 20 Citations,
MLA Format
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Paper Abstract: Causes, impact of inflation, govt. policies.
Paper Introduction: Experts believe that a massive waste of humanity is taking place each day in America and that this waste is slowly but surely eroding the country's economic future (Simon 3). They are referring to unemployment. The purpose of this paper will be to discuss unemployment and its associated problems. This will include a brief look at America's labor history, as well as a review of the causes of unemployment, the controversy surrounding the interpretation of the unemployment figures, inflation's impact on it and the government's policies towards it.
On the first Friday of every month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases the official national unemployment statistics. These figures are projected from the results of interviews conducted with 60,000 households across America; a particular emphasis is placed on the heavily industrialized
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The BLS's number of involuntary part-time workers and discouragedworkers who are no longer measured in the labor force has risendramatically over the past few years. What has become obvious is that the gap between the twolevels has steadily grown wider. In fact, it is believed that muchof the recent jump in inflation is tied to the cheap dollar and not toinflationary hikes in wages (Kuttner 18). However, with the end of the war, the women returned to thehome and a baby boom of exceptional proportions followed. The overall goal, however, would be to better serve business when itneeds help and also help prevent problem by widening the general skill baseof the workforce. Thisfigure would include only those workers who were in or who were threatenedby severe financial distress because of unemployment (Employment in America5). Black men and women between the ages of 16and 19 continue to be the highest unemployable group. Accounting for 36 percent of thejobholders in 1945, this figure was up from 25 percent in 194 (Employmentin America 4). Chicago, IL: Bonus Books, 1987.----------------------- 9 Today, the labor force is further extended with the influx ofimmigrants, both legal and illegal, the high-school worker and seniorcitizens. However, many experts argue that the changes in thework force make these comparisons less meaningful anyway (Kuttner 18). The percentage of the labor force that is lookingfor work but cannot find it makes up the unemployment rate. Another area of concern in unemployment policy-making regardsAmerica's view toward employment training. A closer examination shows, however, thatthere was actually a decline in real wages of workers who dropped out ofhigh school and a rise in wages of college graduates (Corcoran and Wallich64). Further, "discouraged" workersare people who have not looked for work within the previous four weeks andare therefore not counted as either unemployed or part of the labor force.However, the use of these terms and their nuances are at the root of manypolitical conflicts. The labor-supported NationalCommittee for Full Employment periodically releases a "real unemploymentrate," which adds the discouraged and involuntary part-time workers to theofficial BLS rate. They are referring to unemployment.The purpose of this paper will be to discuss unemployment and itsassociated problems. An example is the standard assumption that a 5.1 percent ratesignals inflation. The BLS defines "employed" workers as those who have worked at leastone hour for pay in the week in which the survey interviews were conducted. 1989: 18.Osterman, Paul. Conservatives counterthat the unemployment rate is exaggerated. Once again, the interpretation of the BLS's statisticscarry a tremendous amount of weight, but, as in other areas, are varied andcontroversial. In fact, some conservatives havecalled for a "distress" index to replace the unemployment rate. Annual birthrates jumped from 2.9 million in 1945 to 3.4 million in 1946 to its peak of4.3 million in 1957 (5-6). This will include a brief look at America's laborhistory, as well as a review of the causes of unemployment, the controversysurrounding the interpretation of the unemployment figures, inflation'simpact on it and the government's policies towards it. This background information helps explain why the employment rate in1989 of 5.1 percent did not generate typical inflationary pressures. Thus, the stage was set for conflict. Further, financial analysts who are tryingto predict inflation are interested only in changes involving more than25 , jobs. "For differing reasons, both liberals andconservatives attacked the government's method for calculatingunemployment" (Employment in America 5). Further, certain regions of the country haveoverall high unemployment rates such as Texas with 18 percent while othersare exceptionally low such as Connecticut which barely reaches two percent(Corcoran and Wallich 64). Labor organizations havecontinually said that unemployment rates were underestimated, that thefigure should include both discouraged workers and those part-time workerswho would take full-time work if it was available. Unemployment figures are intricately linked to how the government'sFederal Reserve Board views inflation and its policies toward money andinterest rates. In addition, there are now over 1.2 million temporary workers, manyof whom would prefer to have the wages, benefits and job security ofpermanent employment. Experts believe it was the needs and wants of this new generationthat caused many women to start back to work to supplement the familyincome. Second, economists are paying more attention to the social andcompetitive elements of the growing force of contingent workers. They believe that the programinstituted since the Depression, such as unemployment insurance,supplemental unemployment benefits and, in some cases, union- or employer-funded benefits, softened the sting of unemployment and kept many fromtaking undesirable jobs in favor of waiting for better opportunities(Employment in America 5). All of this reflects that fact that unemploymentstatistics are a politically-charged issue. For many it seems that the work force is being split into two groups: Those with college educations who are enjoying rising incomes, and theother being the high school dropouts whose share of the economy isshrinking. This is due to the fact that prime-age workers tend to haverelatively low jobless rates compared to the younger, less experiencedworkers. All of thischange caused President Reagan to blame a great deal of the highunemployment rate in 1982 on the expanded labor force (Employment inAmerica 6). "The Labor Market Is A Lot Looser Than It Looks." Business Week 27 Mar. Americaneeds to generate more good jobs that justify good wages through highproductivity and fewer jobs which justify low wages. Still others argue that the increase in two-income households hasmade rising unemployment less disastrous. Whatever the figure is, however, some will be pleased when the poolof jobless has shrunk and others will be worried that lower unemploymentwill mean inflation. In particular,minority youth unemployment rates have averaged over 4 percent the pastfew years and although they are declining somewhat, there is still reasonfor concern (Osterman 1 ). With the number of 16-to-24-year-old workers shrinking and the babyboomers increasing the ranks of worker aged 25 to 54, many argue that thejobless rate can now move a lot lower than in the past before it affectsinflation. Further, by 1982, almost the entire baby-boompopulation was also in the labor force. When broken-down, the number ofdiscouraged workers rose from 6.1 million in 1979 to 7.4 million in 1987while, during the same time, the number of involuntary part-time workersrose by more than two million, to 5.1 million (Kuttner 18). Wage: How Baby Boomers May Cool Inflation." Business Week 6 Feb. Most of the new jobs have developed within the services-producing sector which is able to withstand business cycles better thanother sectors. First, theFederal Reserve Board is encouraged to rethink its response to unemploymentrates. Added to these two groups was theolder women returning to work after her children had grown. "The Analytical Economist." Scientific American Aug. Since 1973, the average real wage, defined as a paycheck minusinflation, has stayed the same. Harris of PaineWebber Inc. In this case,"labor force" means the sum total of all those people who want to work,whether they are employed are unemployed (Employment in America 5). Further,the continued decline of unionized workers the reduction in the unionsability to bargain for higher wages is also affecting the figures. It was World War II and the demand for workers to aid the nation'swar effort that opened up millions of new jobs to women and they enteredthe work force as never before. How far apart this will go is anyone's guess since theunemployment data give little insight. Women in the work force rose from 28 percent immediately after thewar to 43 percent by 1983. Arguments for government policyin this area range from providing public training as a strategy forimproving productivity, to concern about the adverse impact of trade thathas led to proposals to expand training for dislocated workers; tocontinued concern about minority youth unemployment. All of this change iscausing the public to have a distorted view of the unemployment rate. 1989: 63-64.Employment in America. "Ave vs. Two public policies are being influenced by these trends. Another reason the figures are viewed with some skepticism is thatnot everyone out of work is "unemployed." As mentioned earlier, some85 , as estimated by BLS are discouraged workers. This figure is nearly double that of 1979. Works CitedCorcoran, Elizabeth and Paul Wallich. Not only are the numbers of those actuallyworking now larger than the country's entire population of 192 , but overhalf the female population now is working along with an unprecedentednumber of young people (Employment in America 4). says: "Matureworkers tend to be more qualified than younger workers and are quicker toaccept job offers because they are more likely to be self-supporting orsupporting a family" (Koretz 26). Let's Put America Back To Work. Much of the time there is no correlation between shiftsin inflation and shifts in employment. As a result, the overall unemployment rate has increased by morethan one percentage point each decade since 195 . Asan example, in 1985, when the rate dropped to 7.2 percent, there werecheers of relief. Moynihan says: "Rates of unemployment that were thoughtintolerable in the early 196 s are thought unattainable in the 198 s"(Simon 3). Washington, DC: Congressional Quarterly, 1983.Koretz, Gene. However, between the Depression and 198 , there wereonly two years (1975 and 1976) when the unemployment rate was that high.Senator Daniel P. Experts believe that a massive waste of humanity is taking place eachday in America and that this waste is slowly but surely eroding thecountry's economic future (Simon 3). Thesefigures are projected from the results of interviews conducted with 6 , households across America; a particular emphasis is placed on the heavilyindustrialized regions. Surprisingly to many economists, the late 198 s have witnessed asteady decline in the unemployment rate against a rising participation inthe work force. This in turn would affect the unemployment rate andinflation in a positive manner. "Unemployed" are those who have not worked at all in that week, but whosought work within the prior four weeks. However, these populations arechanging the age distribution of the labor force and thus theinterpretation of the monthly unemployment rate. Economist Maury N. Even the BLS says the monthly fluctuations amount to little morethan "statistical noise." Changes over the month must exceed two-tenths onone percent to be statistically relevant, and changes in employment mustinvolve more than 14 , jobs. Underlying all of this are the economic and social trends that havehad varying effects on the country's various demographic and geographicgroups. Since the 193 s and the Great Depression, the size and composition ofthe labor force has gone through rapid change, dramatically affectingtoday's unemployment rate. This controversy has a longhistory grounded in America's labor background. "Employment Policy." Current May 1989: 1 -17.Simon, Senator Paul. 1989: 26.Kuttner, Robert. The evidence does point to the fact, however, that theofficial unemployment rate increasingly understates the actual amount ofslack in labor markets (Kuttner 18). As a result, the vagueness of the data is such that threeeconomists can look at the same information and cone up with threedifferent predictions (Corcoran and Wallich 64). On a monthly basis, the smallbumps in the statistics take on the dimensions of a huge mountain,dismaying anxious market-watchers, while economists argue over how lowunemployment can go before it sparks wage competition among employers(Corcoran and Wallich 63). Identifying the problems and developingappropriate training programs would be the end result. And,though the BLS publishes many alternative lists of joblessness, it hasresisted changing the main index in order to preserve its ability to makecomparisons over time. On the first Friday of every month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics(BLS) releases the official national unemployment statistics. In March of 1989,32.8 percent were looking for work as contrasted to the 11.9 percent ofwhite teenagers unemployed. For other groups, thepicture is even more distorted. These figures contributed to the economicgrowth of the postwar era. Further, this increase was accomplished without boostingreal wages. Further, with the foreign competition based on inexpensive laborincreasing, it is projected that the situation is likely to worsen for U.S.laborers without high school degrees. Unemployment figures say very little about how these people aredoing.
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